AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2023)

This study examines the role of agricultural output in Nigeria's economic growth from 1986 to 2023. It employs Rostow's stages of economic growth and Balanced Growth theory to analyze the data. The research utilizes time series data collected from secondary sources, including the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Reports. The study applies various analytical techniques, such as the Ordinary least squares method, unit root tests, co-integration tests, causality tests, and error correction mechanisms. The Johansen test was used to determine long-term relationships among variables, while the Error Correction Model helps regulate the speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run equilibrium. Additionally, the Granger Causality Test was employed to assess cause-and-effect relationships between variables in the model. Other statistical tests used included the coefficient of determination, T-test, F-test, and Durbin-Watson test for serial autocorrelation. The findings indicate that improved agricultural production is strongly correlated with an increase in Nigeria's GDP. Enhanced fishery production also contributes significantly to GDP, highlighting the importance of aquaculture. Furthermore, a significant relationship was found between the availability of bank credit for agricultural output and national economic performance. The Johansen Cointegration test confirms a robust long-term relationship between agricultural activities and economic growth. The study recommends increasing funding for agricultural research, fostering collaboration with universities and research institutions, improving rural infrastructure, facilitating easier access to credit for farmers, establishing training programs for farmers, encouraging cooperatives, providing incentives for agribusiness startups, and developing supportive policies for agricultural development. A stable regulatory environment will attract investment and drive economic growth.