TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON INFANT MORTALITY RATE 2013-2022 (A CASE STUDY OF UMARU SHEHU ULTRA-MODERN HOSPITAL MAIDUGURI, BORNO STATE)
Abstract
The research utilizes the ARIMA model to conduct a comprehensive time series analysis on infant mortality rates in Maiduguri, revealing both trend and seasonality. For both genders, there's a recent fluctuation in trends. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions are employed to determine the model's order. The chosen model, ARIMA (1,1,1), is validated through diagnostics and employed for forecasting. Results suggest potential future fluctuations in male infant mortality rates, while female rates show a stable trend. Statistical tests (KPSS and ADF) confirm male data stationarity post-differencing, while female data requires differencing for stationarity. Forecasts for 2025 indicate an unstable trend for males and stability for females. Recommendations include enhancing delivery channels and community-based services, particularly in high-mortality areas, emphasizing girl-child education through religious and traditional leader advocacy campaigns.
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