STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA(A CASE STUDY OF NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTIC FROM 2008 - 2023)PRESENTED
Abstract
This project paper titled statistical analysis on Impact of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Nigeria (A Case Study of National Bureau of Statistics From 2008- 2023) The aim of this project work is to study dynamic of exchange rate in Nigeria through trend line approach, the aim is achieve through the following objectives: To identify the trend pattern of exchange rate in Nigeria under the period of study also to establish a model that will be used to predicted exchange rate and to forecast exchange rate in Nigeria for subsequent year using estimated model. Base on the three models above, the linear trend with an intercept (64.4) and slope (23.90) shows that unit increase in time (t) will lead to an increase in the slope which cause an increase in the model. And the growth of exponential trend with the intercept (106.577) and slope (1.1028) shows that unit increase in time (t) will lead to an increase in the slope which cause an increase in the model. While the quadratic trend with the intercept (103.2), first slope (10.19) and second slope (0.857) shows that unit increase in time (t) will lead to an increase in first slope which cause a decrease in the model and also lead to an increase in second slope which cause an increase in the model. From the results of the three models fitted for the data on exchange rate, it is seen that quadratic trend model is the best out of the three models. This is based on the test of accuracy conducted on the various models in which the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Mean Square Deviation (MSD) values were obtained from the three models as shown in the accuracy results table above. The Quadratic trend model, having the least values is the best model for the giving data. Forecast exchange rate in Nigeria for subsequent years using best estimated model. We therefore recommend that the government should focus its attention on developing policies that will impact the country’s balance of payment, thus creating a favourable balance between the domestic and foreign sectors.
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