AGRICULTURAL FINANCING, REVENUE AND EXPORT, IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract This study investigates the impact of agricultural financing, government revenue from agriculture, and agricultural exports on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981 to 2023. Employing robust econometric techniques including Descriptive Statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Tests, ARDL Long Run Form and Bounds Test approach, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation, and post-estimation diagnostics the research captures both short-run and long-run dynamics between agricultural financing, revenue, exports, and key macroeconomic variables such as unemployment and inflation on economic growth. The analysis is grounded in the Agricultural Finance Theory and Export-Led Growth Theory. Findings reveal that agricultural financing and government revenue from agriculture significantly and positively influence GDP growth, confirming their roles as critical drivers of national output. Agricultural exports contribute positively in the short run but exhibit negative long-run effects, highlighting structural challenges and the need for diversification and value chain development. Unemployment exerts a strong, negative impact on growth, while inflation’s effect is statistically insignificant. The error correction term supports a long-run equilibrium relationship, with Granger-causality tests indicating unidirectional causality from agricultural financing and revenue to economic growth. Policy recommendations include enhancing access to agricultural finance, improving agricultural taxation efficiency, promoting export diversification, and implementing labor market reforms to address unemployment. The study concludes that a multidimensional policy framework targeting agricultural investment, structural reform, and employment generation is essential for achieving sustained and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria.