MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMIC OF MALARIA DISEASE

ABSTRACT This study models the transmission dynamics of malaria disease in Otuoke, Ogbia Local Government Area,Bayelsa State, by examining human-mosquito interactions and assessing the effectiveness of four major control interventions: insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS),outdoor spraying, and antimalarial drug treatment. Using a compartmental mathematical model parameterized with values from existing literature and simulated with MATLAB, the research explored how different interventions and their coverage levels influence the prevalence of susceptible,infected, and recovered human and mosquito populations. The results revealed that ITNs and IRS significantly reduced transmission by limiting mosquito bites and increasing mosquito mortality,respectively, while outdoor spraying had moderate effects due to shorter insecticide persistence.Antimalarial drug treatment proved most effective in rapidly reducing human infections and indirectly lowering mosquito infection levels, though concerns of drug resistance necessitate integration with preventive strategies. The findings emphasis the importance of combining multiple interventions through integrated vector management for sustainable malaria control in endemic areas such as Otuoke. This study provides valuable insights to policymakers and health authorities in Bayelsa State for developing evidence-based malaria control strategies. The study recommended that health authorities in Bayelsa strategically deploy IRS in high-transmission households or neighborhoods with poor ITN usage.