TRADE LIBERALISATION AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: CASE STUDY OF WHEAT PRODUCTION, 2015-2023

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between trade liberalisation and agricultural development in Nigeria, focusing specifically on wheat production from 2015 to 2023. The main objective was to evaluate how trade liberalisation accounts for poor wheat production and examine how unregulated government trade policies contribute to increasing wheat importation. The specific objectives included assessing trade liberalisation impacts on domestic production performance and analysing regulatory policy failures that enable import expansion. The study utilised documentary analysis as the primary data collection method, sourcing information from government policy documents, agricultural sector reports, trade statistics, and institutional assessments. The dependent variables included wheat production levels and import volumes, while the independent variables encompassed trade liberalisation indicators and policy regulation effectiveness measures. The scope covered Nigeria's wheat sector during 2015-2023, with particular focus on policy regime changes and their sectoral impacts. The research employed a documentary research design using systematic content analysis, trend analysis, and comparative assessment techniques. Statistical correlation analysis and thematic examination methods were used to identify relationships between trade policies and agricultural outcomes across different periods and regulatory frameworks. The study found that trade liberalisation significantly accounted for poor wheat production through competitive disadvantages, investment disincentives, and institutional constraints that systematically undermined domestic agricultural development. Unregulated government trade policies significantly contributed to increasing wheat importation through regulatory failures, policy inconsistencies, and enforcement gaps that enabled uncontrolled market access by foreign suppliers. The study concludes that strategic policy interventions combining moderate trade protection with effective regulatory implementation can successfully promote domestic agricultural development while managing import dependency in strategic food sectors. The research recommends implementing comprehensive trade policy frameworks that balance protection with regulation while strengthening institutional capacity for effective policy implementation and market structure management. Keywords: trade liberalisation, agricultural development, wheat production, import dependency, Nigeria, policy regulation, institutional capacity, market structure.