STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON CHANGE IN MARKET PRICE OF SELECTED FOOD COMMODITIES IN BAUCHI

Abstract: This study conducts a statistical analysis of the changes in the market prices of selected food commodities Maize, Rice, Millet, and Sorghum in Bauchi State, Nigeria, over a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024. The research was motivated by the significant price volatility in essential grains, which poses challenges to economic planning, agricultural sustainability, and household food security. The primary objective was to assess the extent of price fluctuations, analyze inflationary trends, and determine if significant differences exist in the mean prices of the commodities both per measure and per bag across the years. The methodology employed a combination of descriptive and inferential statistics. Index number analysis, including Simple, Laspeyres, Paasche, Marshall-Edgeworth, and Fisher's Ideal Indices, was used to measure price changes and inflation. Furthermore, a Two-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was applied to test for significant differences in mean prices. The findings reveal a profound and consistent upward trend in prices across all commodities. The aggregate price index showed a 1063.01% increase from 2015 to 2024, indicating severe inflation. Individually, Sorghum and Millet recorded the most dramatic price hikes, increasing by approximately 1382% and 1382% respectively, while Rice and Maize increased by 775% and 1202%. The ANOVA results confirmed a statistically significant difference (p-value < 0.05) in the mean prices of the different food items and across the years, both per measure and per bag. Their study concludes that the selected food commodities in Bauchi State have experienced significant inflationary pressure over the past decade, with a sharp acceleration in recent years. This trend threatens food affordability and economic stability. The study recommends policy interventions focused on improving supply chain efficiency, supporting local farmers, regulating markets to curb speculation, and promoting crop diversification to mitigate the adverse effects of price fluctuations and ensure food security in the state.