ASSESSING THE NEXUS BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY (INTEREST RATE) AND EXCHANGE RATE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (2000-2022)
Abstract
This study assessing the nexus between monetary policy (Interest rate) and exchange rate on the
economic growth in Nigeria using time series data over the period of 2000-2022. The objectives
of the study are: to examine the effect of exchange rate on economic growth of Nigeria, determine
the effect of interest rate on economic growth of Nigeria and evaluate effect of inflation rate on
economic growth of Nigeria. The study adopted the econometric technique of Ordinary Least
Squares (OLS). The Augmented Dickey Fuller test was used in the study to check for unit root. The
study revealed that exchange rate (EXR) has a positive relationship with economic growth. The
figure stood at 336.6555, which means that a unit increase in EXR, will lead to 336.655 increase
in gross domestic product in Nigeria within the period under study, Interest rate (INTR) has a
negative relationship with gross domestic product, it did not conform with apriori expectations.
The figure stood at -2292.098, which means that a unit decrease in interest rate, will lead to
2292.098 decrease in gross domestic product in Nigeria within the period under study and
Inflation rate (INFR) has a positive relationship with gross domestic product, it did not conform
with apriori expectations. The figure stood at 103.5632, which means that a unit increase in
inflation rate, will lead to 103.5632 increase in gross domestic product in Nigeria within the period
under study, the result shows that there is the absence of autocorrelation problem in the model as
the computed Durbin-Watson statistics does not fall with the zero autocorrelation regions. The
study recommended that recapitalization is good for Nigerian banking sector and the banking
sector must be able to retain earnings and invest them in business ventures that, in turn, can
generate more earnings, once more earnings are generated it will have positive effect on the
economy in respect to paying actual tax which government can use for infrastructural
development. The study recommended that Strengthen Exchange Rate Policies: Given the positive
relationship between the exchange rate (EXR) and gross domestic product (GDP), policymakers
should prioritize the stabilization and strengthening of the exchange rate, reassess Interest Rate
Strategies: The unexpected negative relationship between interest rates (INTR) and GDP suggests
a need for a thorough reassessment of current interest rate policies and analyze Inflation
Dynamics: The positive association between inflation rate (INFR) and GDP, despite not
conforming to a priori expectations, indicates that inflation's effects are complex and multifaceted.
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