EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS ONFARMERS DECISION MAKING AND RISK REDUCTION IN NORHT CENTRAL NIGERIA

Flooding remains one of the most devastating environmental challenges affecting smallholder agriculture in North-Central Nigeria. This study examined the determinants of farmers’ awareness of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) and analyzed the socio-economic and institutional factors influencing the adoption and interdependence of flood-risk adaptation strategies. A cross-sectional survey involving 400 farmers was conducted across selected communities using a multi-stage sampling technique. Data were analyzed using logistic regression to assess FEWS awareness and a multivariate probit model to estimate the determinants and correlation of adaptation strategies, including crop insurance, planting of early-maturing crops, construction of drainage channels, planting of flood-resistant varieties, and relocation to higher ground.The logistic regression model was statistically significant (LR χ² = 110.32, p < .001; pseudo R² = 0.544), indicating that the explanatory variables accounted for a substantial variation in FEWS awareness. The results revealed that age, cooperative membership, access to extension services, radio exposure, community meetings, and internet use significantly enhanced awareness, while years of farming experience and SMS alerts negatively influenced it. In the multivariate probit analysis, education, access to credit, farm size, and flood-risk exposure significantly influenced adoption of adaptive measures. Younger farmers and those with larger farms were more likely to adopt crop insurance and early-maturing varieties, while education and experience promoted drainage construction. Extension contact and household labor availability strongly encouraged the adoption of flood-resistant varieties. Conversely, relocation was more common among older farmers in high-risk areas but less likely among women, experienced farmers, and those receiving subsidies. Correlation estimates indicated that structural, agronomic, and financial strategies were complementary, whereas relocation served as a substitute for in-situ adaptation efforts.The study recommends that government agencies and development partners strengthen agricultural extension services, enhance cooperative networks, and leverage radio and community meetings as trusted channels for early warning dissemination. Also, mobile-based alerts should be simplified, translated into local languages, and accompanied by practical response guidelines. Finally, policies should promote integrated adaptation, combining financial instruments (such as crop insurance) with infrastructure investment (drainage systems) and climate-resilient seed varieties to build sustainable flood resilience among smallholder farmers.