ANALYZING INSECURITY CHALLENGES OF UNICROSS STUDENTS LIVING ON CALABAR CAMPUS VIA STATISTICALLY PROACTIVE METHODS
Abstract
A time series analysis of various insecurity patterns in UNICROSS over the period 2012 – 2022 was performed. The historical research design was adopted for this study. Thereafter, a time series analysis was performed using Minitab statistical software (version 17). Based on analysis, trend equations modeling the theft/armed robbery, murder, drugs, kidnapping, and rape crimes data for UNICROSS over the period of 2012 – 2022 were observed to be adequate fits relative to time, adjudged by the accuracy measures: MAPE, MAD and MSD. The trend equations could, thus, be used to make appropriate forecast. A downward trend was observed for theft/armed robbery data over the study period; this was in support of the forecast on theft/armed robbery which implied that theft/armed robbery will decrease if the university management persists with her interventions. An upward trend was observed for murder crimes data over the study period; this was in support of the forecast on murder crimes which implied that murder crimes will spike if the university management does not put security measures in place. A downward trend was observed for drugs crimes data over the study period; this was supported by the forecast on drugs crimes which implied that drugs crimes will continue to decline if the university management persists with her interventions. A downward trend was observed for kidnapping crimes data over the study period; this was supported by the forecast on kidnapping crimes which implied that kidnapping crimes will steadily decline if the university management persists with her interventions. An upward trend was observed for rape crimes data over the period under study; this was in support of the forecast which implied that rape crimes will steadily rise if the university management persist with her interventions. The variations present in each type of crime data were more of random, than cyclic seasonal, or linear, in which case it showed that the types of crime can impact UNICROSS community and hers students in all ramifications.
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