THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON MALARIA PREVALENCE IN LOKOJA METROPOLIS, KOGI STATE.

ABSTRACT This study examined the impact of climate variability on malaria incidence and control in Lokoja Metropolis, Kogi State, Nigeria, between 2019 and 2024. Specifically, it analyzed the influence of temperature, rainfall, and humidity on malaria prevalence using secondary data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the Kogi State Ministry of Health. Employing descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation analysis, the study sought to establish the extent to which climatic changes affect malaria transmission and the effectiveness of control strategies. Findings revealed a steady rise in temperature, rainfall, and humidity over the six-year period. These climatic trends were strongly correlated with increasing malaria cases and mortality rates, with correlation coefficients of 0.82 for temperature, 0.76 for rainfall, and 0.79 for humidity (p < 0.01). The analysis confirmed that malaria prevalence in Lokoja is closely tied to climatic conditions, particularly during the rainy season when breeding sites and mosquito survival rates are at their peak. The results further indicated that existing control interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), have not been sufficiently adapted to reflect the realities of climate variability. The study concludes that climate change significantly intensifies malaria transmission dynamics in Lokoja, exacerbating public health risks. It recommends the integration of climate data into malaria surveillance systems, the adoption of climate-sensitive and seasonally targeted interventions, improved environmental sanitation, and greater investment in climate-resilient health infrastructure. Furthermore, it calls for public awareness campaigns and the mainstreaming of climate adaptation strategies into national and local malaria control programs. By providing localized evidence on the climate–malaria nexus, this study contributes to both academic discourse and policy design on climate-sensitive disease control in Nigeria. It underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies that align health planning with climate realities, ensuring more effective malaria control in Lokoja and similar tropical urban environments. Keywords: Climate variability, malaria incidence, rainfall, temperature, humidity, Lokoja, Nigeria, vector-borne diseases, disease control.