UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEXITY OF COINFECTION: A MATHEMATICAL MODELING APPROACH TO MALARIA AND TUBERCULOSIS DYNAMICS

Student: Silver Ogaga Michael
Supervisor: Mr Egborge Oghenerukevwe
HOD: Dr Okereke Ekuma
Department of Mathematics
Sciences
Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Delta State

Abstract

Two of the most important infectious illnesses affecting public health worldwide are still malaria and tuberculosis (TB), especially in low- and middle-income nations where they frequently coexist. Their epidemiological overlap, common socioeconomic drivers, and possible immunological interactions make them a complex public health burden even though they have different etiological agents—Mycobacterium tuberculosis for TB and Plasmodium parasites for malaria. This study presents the derivation and analysis of the SH,IM,IT ,IMT ,RH model for malaria-tuberculosis (TB) coinfection disease. We investigate the biological well-posedness of the formulated mathematical model by proving essential properties, including invariant regions and positivity of solutions for both malaria and TB sub-models. The reproduction numbers are computed separately for each sub-model, providing valuable insights into disease mitigation and persistence. Our comprehensive analysis and control strategies reveal that the disease-free equilibrium points for both sub-models are locally and globally stable if the respective reproduction numbers are less than unity. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium points for each sub-model are globally stable if their respective basic reproduction numbers exceed unity. Additionally, we examine the analytical behavior of the full coinfection model by deriving equilibrium points and investigating their stability conditions. Our findings offer crucial insights into the dynamics of malaria-TB coinfection and inform potential control strategies.

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