THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON MAIZE YIELD: A CASE STUDY OF CHIKUN LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KADUNA STATE.

Abstract This study evaluated the impact of climate variability on maize production using 30 years-1994-2023-of meteorological and agricultural data in Chikun Local Government Area. The analysis of trend was done using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, while the influence of climatic variables on maize output was analyzed using multiple linear regression. Results showed that the increase in minimum temperature was statistically significant at Sen's slope ≈ +0.025°C per year (Mann-Kendall p = 0.016); the maximum temperature showed a slight increase that was not significant, with a Sen's slope ≈ +0.024°C per year (p = 0.511). There was a modest upward trend in annual rainfall of about +6.0 mm per year, though it was statistically insignificant at p = 0.026. Maize production had increased strongly and significantly, with a Sen's slope ≈ +2,768 units per year (Mann-Kendall p < 0.0001), though the year-to-year variability remained high, with a CV of about 31%. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall together explained about 21.5% of the variation in maize production, as indicated by the regression model with an Adjusted R² of 0.125. The partial effects were positive for minimum temperature-β = +28,241, p = 0.070-and rainfall-β = +32.97, p = 0.112-but negative for maximum temperature-β = -9,374.54, p = 0.261. However, these estimates were not statistically significant. This study concludes that climate factors influence maize production in Chikun but account for only a modest share of the variability, indicating the role of non-climatic factors. It is recommended that there is a need to strengthen climate-smart practices, improve access to inputs, and enhance agricultural extension services.