DEVELOPING PROTECTIVE AND RESILIENCE MEASURES FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Student: Macaulay Ofem Isang
Supervisor: Dr Okoi Ewa Wofai
HOD: Prof Mba Ogarekpe Nkpa
Department of Civil Engineering
Engineering
University of Cross River State, Calabar

Abstract

This study addresses the pressing need to enhance the resilience and protection of critical infrastructure systems, including transportation, energy, and water supply networks, within urban contexts. Conducted as of September 24, 2025, the research aims to develop a comprehensive framework and operational measures to mitigate vulnerabilities, adapt to disruptions, and ensure service continuity under adverse conditions. Employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), the study evaluates a conceptual model comprising nine latent constructs: Structural Robustness (SR), System Redundancy (RD), Risk Awareness & Preparedness (RA), Adaptive Capacity (AC), Recovery & Response (RC), Protection (PT), Resilience (RS), Resilient–Vulnerability (RV), and System Performance (SP). Data were collected through surveys and interviews with infrastructure professionals, analyzed using real-world datasets to test eight hypotheses. The findings reveal significant positive relationships, validating that System Redundancy, Recovery & Response, and Resilience directly enhance System Performance (β = 0.233, p = 0.011; β = 0.200, p = 0.046; β = 0.258, p < 0.001, respectively), while Protection bolsters Resilience (β = 0.325) and Resilience mitigates Resilient–Vulnerability (β = 0.474). The measurement model demonstrates robust reliability (composite reliability 0.716–0.852) and convergent validity (AVE 0.53–0.62), though discriminant validity concerns (e.g., AC–RV HTMT = 0.868) and the low R² for System Performance (0.116) suggest areas for refinement. The model explains 33.7% of Protection’s variance, 36.9% of Resilience’s, 38.2% of Resilient–Vulnerability’s, and 11.6% of System Performance’s, indicating moderate predictive power for most constructs but limited explanatory capacity for performance outcomes. Theoretically, the study contributes to resilience engineering and disaster risk management by empirically linking protective measures, resilience, and vulnerability, offering a framework validated through PLS-SEM. Practically, it recommends prioritizing redundancy and recovery capabilities, refining weak constructs like Structural Robustness, and exploring additional predictors to enhance System Performance. Limitations include the urban-centric scope, exclusion of financial feasibility, and the need for enriched measurement scales. Future research should extend the framework to diverse contexts, integrate economic factors, and adopt mixed-method approaches to address these gaps, providing a roadmap for safeguarding critical infrastructure against modern challenges.

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