MODELLING HEALTH CARE SPENDING IN NIGERIA USING AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE

ABSTRACT Healthcare spending refers to the total amount of money spent on healthcare services which includes medical treatment, Hospitalization, Prescription, Medical Device and Equipment, Preventive care and screening, Administrative and overhead cost. Despite lots of research on healthcare spending they are limitations in the use of robust statistical model. Therefore, this study investigates healthcare spending trends in Nigeria from 1960 to 2024 using historical data sourced from Ministry of Health and Macro trends. The ARIMA (1,1,1) model was employed to analyze patterns and forecast future trends. The result shows per capita healthcare spending fluctuated significantly, ranging from $8.30 to $110.00, with an average of $51.79. A sharp increase occurred between 2020 and 2023, driven by COVID-19-related reforms. However, projections for 2025 to 2030 indicate a troubling decline, with spending expected to decrease from $100.89 to $82.86. This research addresses a key gap in the literature by focusing on long-term trend analysis and forecasting of Nigeria's healthcare expenditure, which has received limited attention despite its critical role in shaping public health outcomes., While previous studies have examined short-term spending dynamics, this study offers a robust methodology for predicting future trends using the ARIMA model, validated through diagnostic tests that confirm its reliability. The findings highlight the urgent need for sustained investments in healthcare to prevent potential setbacks in health outcomes.Policymakers should prioritize long-term planning, innovative financing mechanisms, and targeted interventions to ensure that Nigeria's healthcare system remains resilient and capable of addressing future challenges.