GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA (1970–2023)

AbstractThis study examines the impact of government incentives on industrial output performance in Nigeria from 1970 to 2023. Over this 53-year period, successive administrations deployed diverse fiscal, monetary, and trade policies—ranging from the post-independence Import Substitution Industrialisation (ISI) and the market-driven Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) to the modern National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP). Using a review of historical economic frameworks and existing econometric insights (including ARDL and VAR methodologies), this paper evaluates how tax holidays, credit interventions, and tariff structures influenced the manufacturing sector.The empirical consensus reveals a persistent structural disconnect: while government incentives aimed to accelerate industrial growth, their long-term impact on manufacturing value-added GDP remained largely muted, hovering below 10%. Econometric trends indicate that positive fiscal interventions were systematically neutralized by high commercial lending rates, multi-taxation, and severe foreign exchange volatility that inflated the cost of imported raw materials. Ultimately, the study concludes that policy incentives cannot achieve structural transformation in isolation. Their effectiveness is fundamentally undermined by chronic infrastructure deficits—particularly power and logistics failures—policy inconsistencies across political regimes, and weak domestic backward linkages. The paper recommends a shift from broad tax concessions to targeted, infrastructure-backed industrial clusters and stable macroeconomic reforms to enhance local manufacturing capacity.Key