CRUDE OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1982-2023)

This study examines the impact of crude oil prices on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1982 to 2023. Given Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil as a major source of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, fluctuations in global oil prices have significant implications for the country’s macroeconomic performance. The study employs time-series data and utilizes appropriate econometric techniques, including unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and regression modeling, to investigate the relationship between crude oil price movements and economic growth, proxied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings reveal that crude oil price fluctuations have a significant effect on Nigeria’s economic growth both in the short run and long run. Periods of rising oil prices tend to stimulate economic expansion through increased government spending and foreign exchange inflows, while declining oil prices adversely affect growth, often leading to fiscal deficits, reduced investment, and economic instability. The study also finds evidence of structural vulnerabilities in the Nigerian economy due to overdependence on the oil sector. Based on these findings, the study recommends economic diversification, improved fiscal management, and the development of non-oil sectors to reduce the adverse effects of oil price volatility. Strengthening institutional frameworks and promoting sustainable economic policies are also essential for achieving long-term economic stability and growth in Nigeria.