GEOINFORMATICS ANALYSIS OF ENCROACHMENT AND WILDLIFE INVASIONS IN OLD OYO NATIONAL PARK

Encroachment remains a critical challenge in protected area management, often overlooked in favor of urban land-use studies. This research examines encroachment hotspots, spatial distribution patterns, and temporal trends while exploring the relationship between encroachment activities and perpetrator apprehensions to assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The study relies on secondary data, including maps of the study area, perpetrator apprehension records (2016–2023), and multi-date satellite imagery (2017–2023). Remote sensing and geospatial analyses were employed, including change detection techniques to assess land-use shifts, Nearest Neighbor Analysis for spatial distribution, and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics and Kernel Density Estimation for hotspot identification. Regression and correlation analyses were applied to evaluate trends in encroachment and apprehensions. Findings indicate significant spatial variability in encroachment across Old Oyo National Park, characterized by vegetation loss and expansion of cropland, rangeland, and built-up areas, largely driven by intensified grazing and settlement activities. While temporal analysis suggests a declining trend in encroachment—potentially due to conservation efforts—spatial patterns reveal clustering, particularly in the Marguba and Yemoso Ranges, identified as major hotspots. Although apprehensions have moderately increased, weak correlations suggest additional influencing factors beyond law enforcement efforts. The study concluded that while encroachment is decreasing, and it’s concentrated at Marguba and Yemoso Ranges. There is need therefore for conservation strategies, integrating satellite imagery and crime data to enhance law enforcement, surveillance, and sustainable land management.