CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION TO CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19) CASES IN NIGERIA AND GHANA

The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges to global health systems, particularly in West Africa, where limited healthcare infrastructure and resource constraints exacerbated the crisis. This study examines the statistical relationship between international intervention and COVID-19 outcomes in Nigeria and Ghana from 2020 to 2022, focusing on the effectiveness of aid, medical supplies, and health expenditure in mitigating the pandemic's impact. The primary aim was to quantify the effect of international intervention on COVID-19 cases and mortality rates. Specific objectives included: 1. Analyzing temporal trends of cases and aid (e.g., Nigeria: β = -387.2, p < 0.01; Ghana: β = -298.6, p < 0.05). 2. Assessing correlations between aid and case reduction (Nigeria: r = 0.414, p = 0.012; Ghana: r = -0.126, p = 0.463). 3. Evaluating medical supplies' impact on mortality (Nigeria: β = 0.275, p = 0.089; Ghana: β = 0.018, p = 0.917). 4. Comparing intervention effectiveness between countries. A longitudinal quantitative design was employed, using monthly data (N = 72 observations) from WHO, World Bank, and national health agencies. Regression models (R² = 0.205–0.302) and correlation analyses were conducted in R and Python, controlling for health expenditure and bed capacity. Hypothesis testing followed a 0.05 significance threshold. • Nigeria: International aid showed a significant positive correlation with cases (r = 0.414, p = 0.012), suggesting reactive disbursement during outbreaks. Medical supplies had no significant effect on mortality (p = 0.089). • Ghana: Aid was weakly negatively correlated with cases (r = -0.126, p = 0.463), while health expenditure marginally reduced deaths (β = -0.332, p = 0.055). • Comparative Analysis: Ghana’s model explained 30.2% of case variance (p = 0.009) vs. Nigeria’s 20.5% (p = 0.058), reflecting better aid utilization. The study partially supports the hypotheses: international aid was significantly associated with case trends in Nigeria but not Ghana, while medical supplies showed limited mortality impact. Ghana’s stronger governance and health infrastructure enhanced intervention effectiveness. Recommendations include targeted aid allocation and institutional reforms to optimize future pandemic responses. The findings underscore the need for context-specific strategies in global health crises. Keywords: COVID-19 outcomes, international intervention, correlation analysis, regression analysis, public health, aid effectiveness, Mortality impact.