STATISTICAL MODELLING OF CANINE PARVOVIRUS DISEASE AFFECTING DOGS AND IT ECONOMIC IMPACT ON DOG BREEDERS

Canine Parvovirus (CPV) remains a major threat to dog health and survival, particularly among unvaccinated puppies in Nigeria. It is a highly contagious disease that poses a serious risk to dog populations worldwide, with even greater impact in regions where vaccination coverage is inconsistent. CPV infection results in high mortality rates and causes significant financial losses for breeders. This study investigated the epidemiology, survival outcomes, and economic implications of CPV infections using statistical modelling. The study aimed to identify major risk factors associated with CPV infection, examine survival rates of infected dogs, assess how vaccination and treatment influence survival, and estimate the economic burden by comparing treatment and vaccination costs. A retrospective observational design was employed using clinical records of 300 dogs diagnosed with CPV across veterinary clinics. Data were analyzed using Chi-square tests to determine relationships between categorical variables, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and the log-rank test to compare survival distributions, and a cost-benefit analysis in Microsoft Excel to evaluate direct (treatment) and indirect (vaccination) costs. Findings revealed that vaccination status was significantly associated with survival outcomes (χ² = 294.44, p < 0.001). Vaccinated dogs demonstrated longer survival times and higher survival probabilities than unvaccinated ones. Economically, the average treatment cost was ₦15,000 per dog, while vaccination cost was ₦7,000, indicating that treatment is more than twice as costly as prevention. The study concludes that CPV remains endemic, and vaccination stands out as both a medically effective and economically sustainable preventive strategy. Keywords: Canine Parvovirus, Vaccination, Survival Analysis, Chi-square, Kaplan–Meier, Cost-Benefit Analysis.