SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE IN ONDO STATE
Abstract
This study presents a spatio-temporal assessment of how climate variability influenced land use/land cover change (LULCC) in Ondo State, Nigeria, between 2018 and 2022. Using pre-classified ESRI–Copernicus land cover maps (2018–2022) and monthly climate variables (mean temperature and total precipitation) from NASA POWER, the study combined GIS-based change detection, area statistics, time-series trend analysis, and simple correlation overlays to quantify LULC transitions and explore their links with climate variability. The results show that vegetation remained the dominant class but declined from 86.46% (2018) to 80.62% (2022) (−845.85 km²), while bare ground expanded most dramatically (+63.65%). Built-up areas increased by 17.11% and farmland rose modestly, and water bodies recorded a small increase. Climate analysis revealed modest inter-annual temperature fluctuations (mean annual temperatures ≈ 25.2–25.7°C) and an overall decline in annual precipitation towards 2022, which emerged as the driest year in the series. Spatial and temporal overlays indicate a strong association between reduced rainfall/rising temperatures and loss of vegetation—especially in peri-urban and agricultural zones—supporting a climate-driven component to observed land degradation and urban expansion. The study recommends integrating geospatial monitoring into land-use planning, prioritizing afforestation and green infrastructure in fast-growing urban centres, and combining remote-sensing indices with socioeconomic/field data in future work to improve causal inference and policy relevance. This research offers recent, subnational evidence to guide climate-responsive land management in Ondo State.
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