IMPACT OF IMPORT TARIFF ON INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA (1980-2024)
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of import tariffs on industrial output in Nigeria from 1980
to 2024. Motivated by concerns over the effectiveness of trade protectionist policies in
fostering domestic industrial growth, the study employs a log-linear gravity model to analyse
time-series data sourced from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria. The study tests
for stationarity using unit root tests, establishes long-run relationships through cointegration
analysis, and estimates the model using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Findings
reveal that while moderate tariffs can encourage import substitution, excessive tariffs are
negatively associated with industrial output, reflecting inefficiencies and cost escalations in
production. The study concludes that a balanced tariff regime, supported by improved
infrastructure and policy consistency, is essential for sustainable industrial development in
Nigeria. It recommends that policymakers adopt trade policies that promote competitiveness
while avoiding over-protectionis
Full-Text Access Notice
In accordance with the NERD Policy on promoting peer-reviewed publication, public access to the full text of a project, thesis or dissertation is restricted for three years, allowing the author and supervisors sufficient time to pursue peer-reviewed publication.
During this period, researchers with legitimate academic or research purposes may request authorisation directly from the author to enable NERD to release the indexed full texts of the work using the form below.