AN ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA-CHINA ECONOMIC RELATIONS, 2014-2024
Abstract
Over the past five decades, Nigeria and China have developed a steadily expanding bilateral relationship characterized by trade, investment, and large-scale development cooperation. Between 2014 and 2024, Chinese engagement in Nigeria became most visible in infrastructure projects such as railways, ports, and energy plants, often financed through concessional loans and credit facilities from Chinese institutions. While these investments have helped to bridge critical infrastructure gaps, they have also raised concerns over debt sustainability, national sovereignty, and transparency in loan agreements. This study examines the nature, scope, and implications of Nigeria’s reliance on Chinese loans and investments, focusing on economic impacts, governance challenges, and geopolitical considerations. Guided by a dual-theoretical framework combining Dependency Theory and Institutional Liberalism, the research evaluates whether this relationship entrenches structural dependency or offers pathways for sustainable growth. Dependency Theory highlights Nigeria’s vulnerability to trade imbalances, external debt risks, and limited technological transfer, while Institutional Liberalism emphasizes the potential for mutual gains through structured cooperation and institutional reforms. Using a mixed-methods approach, data from official reports, secondary literature, and documentary evidence were analysed to assess the benefits and risks of Chinese financing. Findings reveal that although Chinese-funded projects have enhanced connectivity, industrial capacity, and investment inflows, the absence of strong governance mechanisms and negotiation capacity threatens long-term economic autonomy. The study concludes that Nigeria’s future trajectory in its partnership with China will depend on implementing robust debt management strategies, enhancing transparency, and diversifying its economic partnerships to avoid overdependence on any single foreign actor.
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), bilateral relations, concessional loans, debt trap diplomacy, loan transparency, Nigeria–China relations
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