ECONOMIC IMPLICATION OF AGEING LABOUR FORCE ON THE NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Agricultural productivity in Nigeria has faced persistent decline, with one of the major contributing factors being the demographic transformation of the agricultural labour force. The sector is increasingly dominated by ageing farmers, while youth involvement continues to reduce due to urban migration, inadequate incentives, and lack of modernization in farming practices. This study investigates the economic implications of an ageing labour force on Nigeria’s agricultural output over the period 1990 to 2023. Using an ex-post facto research design, the analysis draws on secondary data from reliable sources such as the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, FAO, and the World Bank. Descriptive statistics and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model were used for empirical analysis. The study employed the Bound Test approach, which confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the ageing farm workforce and agricultural production. Findings revealed that the ageing labour force negatively impacts agricultural output both in the short and long run. Additionally, factors such as education levels, labour force participation, access to extension services, fertilizer application, and technological adoption also significantly affect agricultural productivity. Granger causality tests further showed that changes in the ageing labour force directly influence agricultural output in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study concludes that the ageing farming population poses a threat to agricultural sustainability and national food security. To address this, it recommends strategies including increased mechanization, youth engagement in agriculture, better education programs, and enhanced extension services, all aimed at ensuring a productive and intergenerationally balanced agricultural sector.