THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN NIGERIA

This study investigates the impact of urbanization on agricultural productivity in Nigeria, using annual time-series data from 1986 to 2023. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis incorporates unit root tests, bounds testing, and error correction mechanisms to examine both the short-run and long-run dynamics between urbanization and agricultural productivity. Descriptive statistics reveal moderate variability in agricultural output and steady urban growth during the study period. The results indicate that urbanization exerts a significant negative effect on agricultural productivity in both the short and long run, suggesting that rapid urban expansion diverts resources such as labor and arable land away from agriculture. Conversely, the labor force and foreign direct investment (FDI) positively influence agricultural output, highlighting the roles of human capital and external funding in improving productivity. Inflation and external debt exhibit negative effects, reflecting macroeconomic instability and fiscal pressures that constrain agricultural growth. The error correction term (-0.65) confirms a rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium after short-term shocks. The findings underscore the need for integrated policies that manage urban expansion while strengthening rural infrastructure, promoting investment, and stabilizing the macroeconomic environment to support sustainable agricultural growth.