IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ON POVERTY IN NIGERIA

The study examined the role agricultural output plays in influencing poverty in Nigeria using data spanning from 1980 to 2021. It determined how much crop production, livestock production, fishery production and forestry production may have contributed to poverty with a multiple regression model. Unit root test suggested that all the variables were non-stationary at level, but stationary after the first difference, which displayed integration of the first order, I(1). This was proved by further analysis using the Johansen co integration test that indicated that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Therefore, the error correction model (ECM) was carried in order to implement the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to reflect short-run dynamics. ECM finding revealed that fishery and livestock production produced statistically significant long-run impact on poverty whereas crop and forestry outputs had no significant short-run influence. The term in error correction was significant and had a negative value, which indicated a steady long term correlation between agricultural output and poverty level. In a bid to exploit the potential of agriculture in poverty alleviation, the study also suggests that specific policies such as access to credit, empowerment of smallholders and consolidation of the agricultural chain are the bottlenecks that should be addressed to enable agriculture to alleviate poverty. Moreover, development of rural infrastructure, new technologies, and a revamping of the institution are important in achieving the potential of agriculture as an agent of effective and long-term poverty alleviation in Nigeria.